February 1, 2024
The impetus for leaving Los Angeles...
Some time ago, I realized that my "reasons to live in LA" list had dwindled quite a bit. At the same time, a growing number of developing situations (globally, nationally, locally, and personally) added to the feeling that it was time to leave this over-populated city and head towards a more rural, natural environment. Back to basics, and somewhat off-grid. Also, I took a look at the housing market. Prices of LA real estate seemed unsustainable, and it seemed like a good time to cash out on the property's appreciation. We put the house on the market in September 2023. It closed on Feb 1, 2024.
I know this sounds a little nuts, but here are my reasons for gettin' outta dodge - and yes, they don't all reflect only on LA. As previously mentioned, some points are founded upon global situations that made us want to leave a place like LA for greener pastures.
At the end of this list, I'll explain the plan...
Russia / Ukraine War | Global supply chain problems, potential nuclear option for Putin. |
China / Taiwan / US War | Looming risk of involvement with a real superpower. |
China / Russia ships on Alaska Coast | We face fighting both of them. |
Israel / Gaza / Iran & Proxies | Now we actually involved in three wars at one time. |
Los Angeles as a military target | As a major city with a major ports and airports, LA would be a likely target after DC, NY. |
Los Angeles as a terrorism target | Same as above. |
Political divisiveness | Increasing extreme polarity between the parties, more and more radicals on both sides willing to do & say crazy things to make a statement or get attention. Destabilizing effect on families, schools, society, the US government, and it's credit rating. |
Trump | Chaos continues to occupy the news, and likely will at least until after Nov 2024, and longer if he wins. |
Trump / Biden | Two bad choices. |
Warren Buffet | He has sold billions in stocks in the last three quarters, and is now holding $168 billion in cash! He seems to believe a crash is coming. Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, members of the Walton family (owners of Walmart), Jamie Dimon (CEO of Chase) and others have followed his lead. Remember, these are people that have entire teams of very smart people managing their money. |
US Credit Rating | This has been downgraded from AAA to AA+ with a negative outlook, due to political instability. |
BRICS: | Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, are working together (along with Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Ethiopia) to remove the USD as the world's Reserve Currency. Google "BRICS." Additional pressure on US economy. |
National Debt | Our national debt is a fatal crash in slow motion. The CEOs of Chase, Bank of America, and CITI, and countless financial experts have sounded the alarm that this is the most predictable brick wall crisis we face. |
Global Climate Change | Polar ice caps and historic glaciers are melting, causing changes in ocean temps, water levels, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, extreme heat, and drought in all of our food producing states. This will lead to greater inflation in food costs, making the economy suffer. LA has been experiencing record heat & drought for years. |
AI | AI is rapidly replacing jobs. Writers, Actors, Lawyers, Doctors, Engineers, Programmers, Architects (ie, high paying jobs) and these changes will rapidly trickle down to workers in every segment of the economy. We will see dramatic changes in just about everything we take for granted within 2 years. Tyler Perry recently canceled an $800 million expansion of his Atlanta studio after seeing AI's capabilities. Consider the jobs lost and the materials that won't be purchased. There are upsides to AI, but they're weighed down by the downsides. |
Writer / Actor / IATSI strikes | Both writers and actors can largely & increasingly be replaced by AI. Composers & editors, too. Much of LA is based on Film & TV business, which is in the early stages of going thru what the music business went thru years ago (it's now virtually impossible to make a living in the music business due to streaming). Every streaming company -other than Netflix - is losing money. So many occupations are affected: stagehands, carpenters, electricians, painters, drivers, costumers, makeup, hair, lighting, drivers, caterers, nearby restaurants, rental companies, casting companies, lawyers, musicians, music engineers, producers, directors, colorists, accountants, janitors, etc. These hardworking people are a HUGE part of the LA economy and they are all facing a potentially dire situation. |
Homeless situation | We now regularly have homeless people (many with mental illness and addiction problems) living in cars and tents (or just on sidewalks) all over LA, leaving piles of trash (and excrement) when they're forced to move - this also occurring in the "nice" neighborhoods too. The homeless situation is not going to improve anytime soon. AI and LA's warm weather will accelerate this problem. |
Petty crimes no longer punishable | In LA, petty crime carries no penalty. This has caused an explosion of audacious smash & grab crimes - criminals know they will get away with it. |
Interest rates | High interest rates are driving real estate prices down. People do not want to buy a houses with high rates (unless they have cash). The selling price of most real estate has likely peaked (at what I think is an unsustainable level) for at least the next few years. Very few who live in LA can afford to buy a property in LA. |
Real estate in crisis | Due to Covid and the work-at-home trend, there is now an excess of commercial real estate. Owners are defaulting on their loans, most of which are variable and re-calculate each year, meaning they're paying higher loan costs for buildings that are sitting empty. Same with apartments & rental homes - there are increasing delinquencies as people are not paying their past due Covid-excused rent, putting landlords in trouble, meanwhile those on variable loans are paying higher mortgages. All this while one of the primary LA economies (Film & TV production) is halted and being outsourced. Combined, this means there is a looming banking crises, swirled in with a real estate crisis. |
Housing prices | While prices have amazingly held, the CAP & Interest rates are currently upside down, so RE is not currently a good investment, meaning prices will be heading down. Sales have already plummeted due to high interest rates, and low inventory is the only thing keeping them high. Due to the items in this list, I believe inventory will increase as others prepare to flee Los Angeles. |
NOHO redevelopment postponed | The plans to spend billions of dollars developing the area around the North Hollywood (NOHO) Subway station (tons of commercial & residential buildings) have been on hold since Covid. Their website has not been updated since 2021. With the current excess of commercial RE and stagnant rental prices up against higher interest rates, this project is not likely to proceed anytime soon. |
Summary | All of the above predicts we may be heading into an apocalyptic period. It's time to leave Los Angeles and explore other places to find a more remote, less expensive, self-sustainable lifestyle. |
The Plan
Stuff: Sell, give away, or throw out as much stuff as possible. Starting in the summer of 2023, we held 4 yard sales, sold a bunch of stuff on FaceBook, and filled 2 giant dumpsters (5 tons total!!!) full of stuff. In my defense, that included a bunch of broken up concrete, giant wooden beams, other construction materials, old furniture, many filing cabinets full of old paper. We put what was left in storage. OK, 3 storage units if you must know...
Get an RV that we can live in for up to a year. Take only what's absolutely needed with us in the RV. All of this was a good, but challenging exercise in focusing on what you need and don't need. For literally every item we owned, from socks to extension cords to vases to beds: do we sell it, give it away, toss it, store it, or take it in the RV.
Decide where to go: For us, it's the Pacific Northwest. The goal is 5-10 acres, near the coast, surrounded by trees, preferably old growth pine, redwood & cedar. Far enough away from any neighbors so we can't see or hear them (nor them us), but close enough to grocery & hardware stores...
GO! After closing on the house Feb.1, the new owners kindly gave us a few extra days to complete the move out, then due to weather, we ended up staying at Trish's sister's house for a few days, then we finally shoved off on Feb 7. Read Trish's Note next, then follow along from there!
About Joel: Berklee grad, LA recording engineer, founder of AlterMedia, Inc., creator/developer of Studio Suite software, musician, VO guy, tinkerer / inventor / creator, specialist in dad jokes, RV driver, explorer... To learn more, visit joelstoner.com
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